Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 11.750777 13.458256 15.297988 17.423997 19.809396 22.399442 25.420713
2025-06-15 9.228629 11.538062 14.219939 17.549820 21.557576 26.209125 31.998860
2025-06-22 8.129396 10.746299 13.932167 18.068346 23.265289 29.545068 37.670208
2025-06-29 6.973103 9.705284 13.178958 17.875568 24.009517 31.692540 41.979404
2025-07-06 5.833552 8.511319 12.052827 17.019498 23.734189 32.416199 44.395337
2025-07-13 5.351797 8.132212 11.935921 17.438692 25.098017 35.268273 49.655815
2025-07-20 4.920159 7.765079 11.781085 17.759755 26.306184 37.931923 54.753991
2025-07-27 4.441550 7.273485 11.394716 17.701660 26.950197 39.823534 58.852984
2025-08-03 3.987820 6.768800 10.936640 17.486042 27.326487 41.325441 62.439913
2025-08-10 3.649303 6.406312 10.653402 17.493567 28.004278 43.259038 66.695379
2025-08-17 3.388692 6.140967 10.491787 17.662024 28.912327 45.545560 71.536863
2025-08-24 3.116499 5.828736 10.227221 17.641720 29.515115 47.388601 75.780827
2025-08-31 2.833764 5.477361 9.879879 17.476553 29.899513 48.947994 79.717697
2025-09-07 2.637013 5.257258 9.730668 17.619294 30.772613 51.286281 84.936033
2025-09-14 2.524851 5.176860 9.807231 18.133681 32.260147 54.627052 91.820560
2025-09-21 2.307240 4.879811 9.483926 17.942351 32.567181 56.106662 95.832420
2025-09-28 2.011867 4.404440 8.805180 17.082730 31.694731 55.638339 96.699226
2025-10-05 1.927378 4.332894 8.851111 17.503559 33.019417 58.790074 103.520606
2025-10-12 1.835766 4.237854 8.844785 17.825595 34.182364 61.713529 110.068975
2025-10-19 1.703643 4.046256 8.640381 17.767339 34.665851 63.510774 114.808487
2025-10-26 1.564596 3.825928 8.362765 17.550997 34.848420 64.794999 118.722737
2025-11-02 1.462373 3.675001 8.209467 17.558551 35.431891 66.781848 123.890169
2025-11-09 1.384988 3.571508 8.142975 17.727564 36.316367 69.319306 130.083964